Valuable-Maracas
0x2a97c8cfb0887337a8581afaf4989f03a6fe1f4b
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$9.1K
Total PnL
$583.99
Realised
$-23.75
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
6500 shares @ 46.9¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.7K
$687.53
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
5427 shares @ 43.7¢·now 49.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.7K
$295.80
- YES
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?
2000 shares @ 61.5¢·now 62.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.2K
$13.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 37.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$375.00
$5.00
- NO
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?
448 shares @ 46.4¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$356.18
$148.34
- YES
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 34.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$255.00
$-85.00
- NO
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?
298 shares @ 70.6¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$234.22
$23.62
- NO
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?
337 shares @ 84.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$183.84
$-99.51
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
128 shares @ 37.6¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$22.35
$-25.71
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
83 shares @ 25.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$14.61
$-6.26
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.73Aug 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.73Aug 2, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.71Aug 1, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.69Jul 31, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.69Jul 30, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.68Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.61Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.65Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.66Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.63Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.59Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.60Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.63Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.67Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.67Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.72Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.71Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.66Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.70Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?$0.09Jul 15, 22:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $0.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.