Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Probability
11¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$20.16
Liquidity
$16.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14772h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $16.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14772.0h
- 16:57SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14772h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 13¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 3¢+0.1pp
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 1¢-0.1pp
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 8¢0.0pp
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $353.75
- 1¢-0.3pp
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $86.66
- 1¢-0.1pp
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $2.00
- 35¢0.0pp
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $736.37
- 56¢0.0pp
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $1.7K
- 75¢0.0pp
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $73.12
- 79¢+1.0pp
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.6M
- 0¢-38.5pp
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $878.9K
- 65¢0.0pp
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
Other · Vol $484.6K
- 0¢-1.8pp
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?
Other · Vol $471.8K
- 100¢+49.5pp
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $471.0K
- 100¢+59.5pp
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $419.5K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- using the total token supply multiplied by the token priceAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
20 wallets- Medium-Nourishment5.0K
- Wan-Diamond3.9K
- Uneven-Morning3.0K
- Unfortunate-Somebody2.5K
- Modern-Auditorium1.6K