Self-Assured-Refuge
0x2abffe486e9e540ba1f1394dd6f5f9196efef2a0
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$21.66
Total PnL
$1.66
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will Andrew Tate attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
10 shares @ 95.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.44
$0.44
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.29
$0.29
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
1 shares @ 76.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.24
$0.24
- NO
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
1 shares @ 76.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.16
$0.16
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.12
$0.12
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1 shares @ 86.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.12
$0.12
- NO
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
1 shares @ 88.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.11
$0.11
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1 shares @ 86.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.10
$0.10
- NO
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
1 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- NO
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
1 shares @ 94.4¢·now 97.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.04
$0.04
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$1.59Jul 12, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrew Tate attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$10.02Jun 28, 04:04 UTC
- REDEEMInternet access restored in Iran by Friday?$0.00Jun 28, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?$0.00Jun 28, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 13?$0.00Jun 28, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$0.00Jun 28, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$0.00Jun 28, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Gaza–Israel conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this year?$0.00Jun 28, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?$0.00Jun 28, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMRussia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?$1.45May 15, 23:35 UTC
- REDEEMTim Walz in jail by March 31?$1.02Apr 21, 13:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?$1.08Apr 21, 13:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill anyone charged over daycare fraud in MN be deported by March 31?$1.16Apr 21, 13:09 UTC
- REDEEMUS strike on Mexico by March 31?$1.25Apr 21, 13:09 UTC
- REDEEMICE shooter charged by March 31?$1.47Apr 21, 13:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?$0.00Mar 25, 05:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?$0.00Mar 25, 05:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.28Mar 25, 04:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.33Mar 25, 04:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?$1.08Feb 26, 20:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $1.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 6, 22:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 03:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.