Wallet digest

active

Activity score

62/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$245.20

Total PnL

$-261.09

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
115 shares @ 87.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$110.86
$10.86
YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
110 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027
$110.00
$29.70
NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
30 shares @ 66.0¢·now 80.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$24.33
$4.33
YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
15000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025
$0.00
$-24.99
YES
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
1000 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025
$0.00
$-210.00
YES
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?
510 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-30.00
YES
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
357 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?
273 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-30.00
NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:19 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jun 30, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jun 29, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jun 28, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jun 27, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jun 26, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jun 25, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jun 24, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jun 22, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jun 21, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jun 20, 00:20 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jun 19, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jun 17, 00:20 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

review

1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity37 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry11 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk67 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 1
Avg trade size: $81.17
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 19, 00:10 UTC
Last active: Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 07:13:15 UTC·src:Polymarket Data