Vast-Umbrella
0x2bc74f012dcbb8b79be6de784e97e41041b84116
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$6.15
Total PnL
$-11.82
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?
3 shares @ 32.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$3.13
$2.13
- YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
1 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$1.39
$0.39
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
1 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.20
$0.20
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?
3 shares @ 37.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.43
$-0.57
- UP
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on December 10?
742 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025?
35 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February?
13 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
10 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Datadog Inc (DDOG) beat quarterly earnings?
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?$1.03Jul 6, 05:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?$1.02Jul 6, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-07?$1.01Jul 6, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.02Jul 6, 05:41 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs$1.06Jul 6, 05:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?$1.30Jul 6, 05:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?$1.75Jul 6, 05:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.89Jul 6, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.00Jun 5, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?$1.01Jun 5, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs$1.00Jun 5, 17:52 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?$1.02Jun 5, 17:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?$1.09Jun 5, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?$1.00May 9, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?$1.02May 9, 03:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$1.04May 9, 03:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?$1.00May 9, 03:37 UTC
- REDEEMTrump out as President by April 30?$1.01May 9, 03:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win <30 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?$1.03May 9, 03:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?$1.14May 9, 03:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $1.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 1, 04:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 05:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.