Carefree-Paradise
0x2bcdb1b510ea9d2a8e29f314e01138694e7d7955
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
84
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-389.05
Realised
$24.27
Win rate
81%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 84- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
360 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-23.96
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
228 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?
225 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
131 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-8.32
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
124 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?
113 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
111 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?
89 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$1.05Jun 17, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$1.07Jun 17, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$1.06Jun 17, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$4.42Jun 17, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$2.10Jun 17, 09:18 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$4.92Jun 17, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$2.11Jun 17, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$2.11Jun 17, 09:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.06Jun 17, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.05Jun 17, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.05Jun 17, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.07Jun 17, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.06Jun 17, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.67Jun 17, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$2.12Jun 17, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$2.02Jun 17, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$1.06Jun 17, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$1.84Jun 17, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$1.06Jun 17, 08:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$1.88Jun 17, 08:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
81% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 08:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 09:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.