Scary-Antibody
0x2be004d6d3ee2be9e2310f380778745ece1d68ad
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$101.81
Total PnL
$-490.19
Realised
$30.69
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
931 shares @ 8.0¢·now 3.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$28.86
$-45.62
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
100 shares @ 29.4¢·now 23.8¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$23.88
$-5.55
- YES
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
700 shares @ 5.6¢·now 2.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.40
$-24.10
- YES
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?
40 shares @ 36.6¢·now 33.7¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$13.46
$-1.18
- YES
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?
200 shares @ 10.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
300 shares @ 2.7¢·now 1.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$5.85
$-2.25
- YES
OKX IPO in 2026?
63 shares @ 15.8¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.36
$-4.64
- YES
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
200 shares @ 11.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.00
$-21.60
- YES
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale?
300 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-13.80
- NO
Over $10M committed to the ZKLSOL raise on MetaDAO?
295 shares @ 67.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$100.00Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway win on 2026-07-05?$50.00Jul 5, 22:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$18.83Jul 3, 12:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $17.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 00:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.