0x2c250c1a1401f13e0367ec7e711add5e270f87c0
0x2c250c1a1401f13e0367ec7e711add5e270f87c0
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
85
Open notional
$153.85
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$55.72
Win rate
55%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 85- NO
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?
80 shares @ 14.0¢·now 93.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$74.72
$63.54
- NO
Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?
109 shares @ 64.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$74.65
$4.90
- NO
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?
80 shares @ 64.8¢·now 5.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.48
$-47.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 19?
451 shares @ 43.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2025$0.00
$-197.90
- PRINCETON TIGERS
Princeton Tigers vs. Penn Quakers
357 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-182.07
- YES
Will Israel strike Yemen 2 times by October 31?
295 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 20?
220 shares @ 27.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025$0.00
$-59.95
- TEAM LIQUID
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage
203 shares @ 35.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-71.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 18?
136 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-3.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 14?
113 shares @ 69.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-78.59
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?$40.00Jul 4, 22:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$34.00Jul 1, 13:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?$19.62Jun 30, 15:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?$40.00Jun 30, 15:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?$40.00Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?$2.90Jun 27, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$12.98Jun 27, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?$8.67Jun 27, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$39.55Jun 27, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?$36.14Jun 27, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?$36.11Jun 27, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$27.42Jun 27, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?$36.53Jun 27, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?$19.50Jun 27, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?$70.75Jun 27, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYSt. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks$31.20Mar 22, 18:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15?$12.26Mar 16, 12:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 15?$30.00Mar 16, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15?$4.13Mar 15, 21:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15?$4.90Mar 15, 19:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $17.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 14, 21:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 22:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.