Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
Probability
50¢
1h
+7.0pp
24h
+10.5pp
24h Vol
$2.7K
Liquidity
$2.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 11pp over 24h
Now 50¢; +7.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 45¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: US government
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 1, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 369.7h
Price movement
+10.5pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access). This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count. Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify. The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
claudeReason
Question text contains "claude" — matched the AI keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?"?
As of Mon, 15 Jun 2026 18:18:38 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +10.5pp in the last 24 hours, +7.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 1, 2026 (2026-07-01T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$2.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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