Daring-President
0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$47.4K
Total PnL
$-37.2K
Realised
$-1.9K
Win rate
39%
51 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
16014 shares @ 60.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$16.0K
$6.3K
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
14997 shares @ 46.2¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.5K
$-406.54
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
4823 shares @ 86.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.2K
$24.11
- NO
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
2952 shares @ 90.2¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$2.9K
$272.90
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
3158 shares @ 76.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.4K
$-47.38
- NO
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
1558 shares @ 50.9¢·now 77.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$406.18
- NO
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by July 30?
980 shares @ 94.5¢·now 98.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$965.30
$39.30
- YES
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
1024 shares @ 38.3¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$870.71
$478.28
- YES
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?
740 shares @ 62.5¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$703.00
$240.17
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?
769 shares @ 84.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$684.41
$38.45
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$232.39Jul 28, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 125 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$17.54Jul 28, 13:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 125 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$131.91Jul 28, 13:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 125 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$189.55Jul 28, 13:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 125 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$25.21Jul 28, 13:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 125 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$351.65Jul 28, 13:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$64.75Jul 28, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?$7.11Jul 27, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?$36.67Jul 27, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?$11.85Jul 27, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYTodd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by October 31?$72.78Jul 26, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$217.47Jul 25, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$230.33Jul 25, 12:13 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$267.39Jul 24, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$101.48Jul 24, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?$3.70Jul 24, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$24.50Jul 24, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$480.00Jul 24, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$280.80Jul 24, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$369.60Jul 24, 00:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
39% win rate over 51 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
51 closed markets, 39% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $131.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 13:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 13:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 51 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.