Leafy-Aid
0x2c7a1ef8bab307827b76be8e5267d8c05b406875
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$798.41
Total PnL
$-6.2K
Realised
$-130.15
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- YES
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
1717 shares @ 28.4¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$283.37
$-204.86
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
500 shares @ 26.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$162.50
$32.50
- YES
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
1392 shares @ 10.6¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$104.36
$-43.48
- YES
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
2884 shares @ 1.4¢·now 2.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$66.34
$26.05
- YES
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?
250 shares @ 14.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$55.00
$20.00
- YES
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
250 shares @ 40.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.50
$-57.50
- YES
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.00
$10.00
- NO
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
30 shares @ 66.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.05
$2.25
- YES
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
100 shares @ 15.6¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.00
$-1.62
- YES
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by July 31?
702 shares @ 2.8¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.78
$-10.87
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?$32.87Jul 28, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$130.00Jul 27, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 28?$78.00Jul 27, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 27?$64.00Jul 27, 07:51 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?$0.87Jul 26, 17:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?$23.49Jul 26, 16:29 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?$22.01Jul 26, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?$490.47Jul 26, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?$21.00Jul 26, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by July 31?$9.44Jul 25, 14:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$0.77Jul 25, 14:16 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?$0.05Jul 25, 14:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$0.02Jul 25, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by July 31?$11.17Jul 25, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?$8.80Jul 25, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?$127.61Jul 25, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?$79.05Jul 25, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?$12.80Jul 25, 09:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by July 31, 2026?$13.91Jul 25, 07:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?$30.74Jul 25, 07:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $64.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 10:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 04:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.