Fine-Quiver
0x2cd0eb5036961e266563ba6c4a216354b7affb3d
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
161
Open notional
$593.11
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$146.72
Win rate
4%
71 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 161- YES
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
810 shares @ 54.1¢·now 19.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$159.59
$-278.69
- YES
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
8000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$60.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
7500 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$41.25
$-18.75
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
119 shares @ 48.6¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$30.40
$-27.60
- YES
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5280 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$29.04
$-11.04
- TEAM SPIRIT
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs
21 shares @ 59.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$19.57
$7.02
- TEAM SPIRIT
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)
22 shares @ 32.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$19.25
$12.25
- TEAM SPIRIT
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
21 shares @ 56.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$18.86
$6.86
- UNDER
Games Total: O/U 2.5
22 shares @ 51.1¢·now 83.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$17.98
$6.98
- BOOMBOYS
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs
21 shares @ 62.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$12.90
$-0.10
Recent activity
- REDEEMDota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner$21.43Aug 22, 03:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 22, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYGame Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)$11.76Aug 21, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYGames Total: O/U 2.5$9.27Aug 21, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner$7.24Aug 21, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner$7.24Aug 21, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs$5.19Aug 21, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?$11.27Aug 21, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?$11.27Aug 21, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?$11.27Aug 21, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?$11.27Aug 21, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYGame Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)$6.77Aug 21, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYGames Total: O/U 2.5$11.26Aug 21, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winner$12.26Aug 21, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys - Game 1 Winner$12.26Aug 21, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs$13.25Aug 21, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYGame Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)$7.24Aug 21, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYGames Total: O/U 2.5$11.27Aug 21, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner$12.26Aug 21, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner$12.26Aug 21, 20:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 71 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
71 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $10.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 20, 17:26 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 22, 03:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 71 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.