0x2d48c834897176269fddde6043e566f6bbc1678c
0x2d48c834897176269fddde6043e566f6bbc1678c
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
70
Open notional
$897.46
Total PnL
$-556.69
Realised
$-73.49
Win rate
24%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 70- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
80 shares @ 61.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$49.20
$0.40
- NO
Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027?
104 shares @ 11.2¢·now 45.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$46.80
$35.10
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 74.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$39.36
$9.76
- NO
Will David Harbour – “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?
114 shares @ 32.0¢·now 33.3¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$37.74
$1.46
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
37 shares @ 79.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$36.42
$7.52
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
38 shares @ 79.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$34.74
$4.75
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
48 shares @ 58.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$32.68
$4.60
- NO
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.50 on December 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 42.0¢·now 78.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.48
$14.68
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
41 shares @ 74.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$30.61
$0.61
- NO
Will $ANSEM dip to $0.04 before 2027?
40 shares @ 18.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$27.00
$19.80
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:13 UTC
- REWARD$8.37Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMSquid FDV above $40M one day after launch$0.00Aug 5, 23:00 UTC
- REDEEMSquid FDV above $50M one day after launch$0.00Aug 5, 23:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tom Perriello be the VA-05 Democratic nominee?$0.00Aug 5, 07:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rashida Tlaib be the MI-12 Democratic nominee?$0.00Aug 5, 03:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shannon Taylor be the VA-01 Democratic nominee?$0.00Aug 5, 02:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:34 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$57.85Aug 4, 18:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Squid launch a token by December 31, 2026?$0.00Aug 4, 16:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Squid launch a token by October 31, 2026?$0.00Aug 4, 16:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Squid launch a token by March 31, 2027?$0.00Aug 4, 16:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Aug 4, 05:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
24% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 15:29 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.