Tiny-Equality
0x2e617f2cb474acaba820030e4819fe92148519bd
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
116
Open notional
$27.4K
Total PnL
$-63.0K
Realised
$-4.6K
Win rate
55%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 116- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
12000 shares @ 11.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.6K
$4.3K
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
4000 shares @ 83.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.8K
$506.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
3749 shares @ 48.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.7K
$1.9K
- NO
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
4098 shares @ 47.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.9K
$962.31
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
9000 shares @ 32.9¢·now 30.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$2.8K
$-173.87
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
2410 shares @ 70.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.4K
$704.30
- NO
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
2000 shares @ 31.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$710.00
- YES
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
81267 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$853.31
$-514.26
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 72.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$705.00
$-15.00
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
500 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$499.74
$159.75
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.21Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$504.77Jul 28, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$9.10Jul 28, 12:06 UTC
- TRADESELLMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?$30.00Jul 28, 12:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?$339.99Jul 24, 05:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$343.24Jul 23, 18:44 UTC
- TRADESELLMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$37.63Jul 23, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$14.35Jul 23, 14:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mykhailo Drapatyi be appointed as the next Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2026?$665.55Jul 23, 05:49 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?$39.06Jul 22, 20:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$110.00Jul 22, 20:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?$934.34Jul 22, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?$24.00Jul 22, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?$24.77Jul 22, 10:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $58.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 15:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.