Guilty-Fertilizer
0x2f056f3f1dc680b2782b38fa9a4471817245c7ee
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-44.29
Win rate
15%
54 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on March 29?
1005 shares @ 34.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-348.47
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on March 30?
914 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-338.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on March 26?
635 shares @ 38.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-244.98
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 9PM ET
250 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025$0.00
$-25.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11PM ET
157 shares @ 64.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-101.66
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 2AM ET
129 shares @ 18.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025$0.00
$-24.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3AM ET
123 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.23
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4AM ET
118 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-100.06
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 26?
112 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-5.59
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 6AM ET
111 shares @ 40.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-45.28
Recent activity
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.75Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$0.02Jun 29, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$1.72Jun 29, 02:03 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$2.69Jun 29, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$1.45Jun 29, 01:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$1.46Jun 29, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$1.31Jun 29, 01:51 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.32Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$1.63Jun 5, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$1.06Jun 5, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - May 14, 8PM ET$3.77May 15, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 14, 8PM ET$4.09May 15, 00:42 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - May 14, 8PM ET$4.16May 15, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 14, 8PM ET$4.42May 15, 00:09 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - May 14, 9AM ET$5.52May 14, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 14, 9AM ET$5.96May 14, 13:23 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 13, 1PM ET$3.78May 13, 19:43 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - May 13, 3PM ET$6.32May 13, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 13, 3PM ET$7.63May 13, 19:22 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - May 13, 3PM ET$5.61May 13, 19:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
15% win rate over 54 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
54 closed markets, 15% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $4.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 7, 06:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 54 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.