Interesting-Aspic
0x2f5242b73c0f0222b44f5b35351ebf9c0d339fba
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
109
Open notional
$601.85
Total PnL
$-351.44
Realised
$-82.57
Win rate
44%
81 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 109- YES
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?
64 shares @ 42.5¢·now 39.0¢·exp Sep 28, 2026$25.10
$-2.25
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?
47 shares @ 54.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$23.37
$-2.12
- NO
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
50 shares @ 52.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
50 shares @ 37.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$21.80
$3.24
- NO
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?
49 shares @ 59.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$21.56
$-7.35
- NO
Amazon 2026 capex above $210B?
50 shares @ 56.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$21.25
$-6.75
- NO
Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?
50 shares @ 44.7¢·now 42.0¢·exp Oct 26, 2026$21.00
$-1.35
- YES
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?
50 shares @ 50.6¢·now 41.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.55
$-4.75
- YES
Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next?
50 shares @ 39.5¢·now 35.7¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$17.85
$-1.90
- YES
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
50 shares @ 41.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$17.25
$-3.26
Recent activity
- MERGEWill Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$10.00Jul 29, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$5.50Jul 29, 02:56 UTC
- MERGEWill Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$20.44Jul 29, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$11.86Jul 29, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$21.00Jul 29, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?$11.66Jul 29, 02:37 UTC
- MERGEAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?$50.00Jul 29, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?$28.00Jul 29, 02:37 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.68Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$18.62Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- MERGEWill Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$35.00Jul 28, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$19.60Jul 28, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$20.00Jul 28, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Brennan be arrested before 2027?$3.90Jul 28, 22:03 UTC
- MERGEBenedict Wong as Wong?$5.48Jul 28, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBenedict Wong as Wong?$3.78Jul 28, 20:24 UTC
- MERGEWill Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026?$7.90Jul 28, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026?$3.46Jul 28, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$26.62Jul 28, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?$25.50Jul 28, 18:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
64/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 81 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
81 closed markets, 44% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $15.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 12:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 81 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.