Lovable-Gadget
0x2f8a5981614ae809ff2a75832fc10a72793ef086
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$516.82
Total PnL
$-486.28
Realised
$-2.40
Win rate
9%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
119 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$112.79
$1.79
- NO
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
108 shares @ 93.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$103.49
$3.49
- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
57 shares @ 89.8¢·now 87.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$49.95
$-1.05
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
51 shares @ 79.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.84
$6.84
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
272 shares @ 5.5¢·now 12.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$34.90
$19.90
- NO
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
39 shares @ 38.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$34.36
$19.36
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
182 shares @ 27.4¢·now 15.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$28.56
$-21.44
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
24 shares @ 85.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.69
$2.69
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
41 shares @ 49.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$20.61
$0.61
- YES
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
208 shares @ 36.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.67
$-58.33
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Aug 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 5, 02:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 4, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 1, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 31, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
9% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $47.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.