Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
Probability
78¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$101.37
Liquidity
$3.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 78¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6008h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $3.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6008.4h
- 20:36SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6008h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 78¢.
Biggest hourly move: +24.5pp at 2d ago (to 74¢).
Show all 26 hour-by-hour ticks
- 14:00 · -3.5pp → 78¢
- 06:00 · +8.5pp → 76¢
- 05:00 · +10.5pp → 76¢
- 03:00 · +13.0pp → 76¢
- 02:00 · +11.5pp → 76¢
- 01:00 · +4.5pp → 76¢
- 21:00 · +3.5pp → 77¢
- 1d ago · +11.0pp → 76¢
- 1d ago · +8.5pp → 76¢
- 1d ago · +8.5pp → 76¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 74¢
- 1d ago · +4.5pp → 74¢
- 1d ago · +4.5pp → 74¢
- 1d ago · +23.5pp → 74¢
- 2d ago · +24.5pp → 74¢
- 2d ago · +17.0pp → 74¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 73¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 73¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 73¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 73¢
- 2d ago · +9.5pp → 73¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 76¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 76¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 76¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 76¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 76¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
4Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryKraken (exchange price)TypeExchange priceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
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