Watery-Tug
0x2f90713229adf6c89a9916601650cce833e8e17f
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
83
Open notional
$61.80
Total PnL
$-751.72
Realised
$-47.10
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 83- YES
Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?
180 shares @ 8.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$22.50
$8.10
- NO
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
21 shares @ 47.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.26
$9.26
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
46 shares @ 21.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.77
$6.17
- NO
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
3 shares @ 63.9¢·now 83.8¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$2.25
$0.53
- NO
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 94.6¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.20
$0.04
- DOWN
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?
2 shares @ 20.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$0.83
$0.34
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
664 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-55.07
- YES
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
302 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-19.32
- YES
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
255 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of June 15 2026?
242 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-19.36
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?$2.16Aug 2, 15:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$1.53Aug 1, 11:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?$1.54Jul 17, 13:32 UTC
- REWARD$53.90Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?$0.81Jul 7, 19:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?$18.34Jul 1, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?$5.88Jun 24, 01:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?$15.00Jun 23, 22:41 UTC
- REWARD$36.35Jun 23, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?$0.90Jun 23, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by June 30?$1.13Jun 23, 16:35 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.12Jun 23, 14:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027?$3.04Jun 23, 07:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$3.50Jun 23, 06:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%?$7.30Jun 23, 03:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?$0.00Jun 23, 00:52 UTC
- REWARD$22.03Jun 23, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?$4.62Jun 22, 22:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%?$4.25Jun 22, 21:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?$1.35Jun 22, 20:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $8.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 10:05 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 2, 15:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.