Watery-Tug
0x2f90713229adf6c89a9916601650cce833e8e17f
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
107
Open notional
$572.14
Total PnL
$-681.88
Realised
$-46.32
Win rate
38%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 107- YES
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 in June?
200 shares @ 20.0¢·now 58.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$116.00
$76.00
- NO
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?
84 shares @ 76.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$64.83
$0.84
- NO
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
99 shares @ 25.3¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$54.68
$29.72
- NO
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?
78 shares @ 31.5¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$44.81
$20.27
- NO
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?
63 shares @ 70.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$38.85
$-5.37
- YES
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?
62 shares @ 25.7¢·now 59.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$36.77
$20.83
- YES
Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?
180 shares @ 8.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$22.50
$8.10
- YES
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June?
100 shares @ 52.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$22.50
$-29.50
- YES
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?
114 shares @ 26.1¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$22.27
$-7.58
- NO
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?
30 shares @ 69.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$19.29
$-1.19
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?$63.99Jun 20, 19:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B?$5.83Jun 20, 16:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B?$17.51Jun 20, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?$13.00Jun 20, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026$0.33Jun 20, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 in June?$5.05Jun 20, 16:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?$8.06Jun 20, 16:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?$9.97Jun 20, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?$14.51Jun 20, 15:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?$7.93Jun 20, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?$9.07Jun 20, 15:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$37.60Jun 20, 15:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?$3.58Jun 20, 15:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?$36.13Jun 20, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$44.06Jun 20, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$53.71Jun 20, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$41.55Jun 20, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$11.70Jun 20, 15:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$0.34Jun 20, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$0.39Jun 20, 15:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $16.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 12:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 19:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.