EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires —
Creator

Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.3pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$1.0K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
—
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the listed artist with the greatest number of monthly listeners according to Spotify on May 31, 2026, 12PM ET
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-33.9pp 7d
Apr 30, 2026, 01:00May 7, 2026, 00:29
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-07T00-29Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

-0.3pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

Biggest hourly move: -34.3pp at 4d ago (to 0¢).

Show top 8 of 52 hourly moves
  • 2d ago · -27.3pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · +27.2pp → 27¢
  • 2d ago · -31.8pp → 2¢
  • 4d ago · -34.3pp → 0¢
  • 4d ago · -33.9pp → 1¢
  • 4d ago · -33.9pp → 1¢
  • 4d ago · -29.1pp → 5¢
  • 4d ago · -33.9pp → 1¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

13
Same eventTop Spotify artist in May?
Category · Entertainment

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the listed artist with the greatest number of monthly listeners according to Spotify on May 31, 2026, 12PM ET. The monthly listener count is listed on each artist's public Spotify profile. Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not count towards the featured artist's total. In the event of an exact tie for the number of monthly listeners, this market will resolve in favor of the listed artist whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If Spotify is down at the listed time on the listed date, this market will resolve based on the most recent available data. The resolution source for this market will be Spotify.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Entertainment

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

spotify

Reason

Question text contains "spotify" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?"?

As of Thu, 07 May 2026 00:29:20 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -33.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.8¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

9 wallets
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