Mundane-Comradeship
0x300c5e1ec9e4d6e8bd9617f0a44508170c5b6a92
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.8K
Total PnL
$-5.2K
Realised
$557.67
Win rate
61%
85 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
1120 shares @ 68.4¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$778.35
$11.91
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?
400 shares @ 87.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$350.00
$2.00
- YES
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
1120 shares @ 29.4¢·now 29.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$324.80
$-4.71
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
415 shares @ 73.2¢·now 74.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$309.18
$5.53
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
270 shares @ 85.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$238.95
$9.45
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
200 shares @ 83.5¢·now 95.3¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$190.70
$23.61
- NO
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
200 shares @ 78.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$155.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
250 shares @ 55.6¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$138.74
$-0.34
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
200 shares @ 70.5¢·now 68.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$137.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?
145 shares @ 85.7¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$128.32
$4.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin not meet?$20.80Jul 28, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?$43.48Jul 28, 16:40 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$25.00Jul 28, 16:32 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$83.73Jul 28, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$70.00Jul 28, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by September 30?$37.00Jul 28, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?$6.69Jul 28, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$71.00Jul 28, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by September 30?$37.00Jul 28, 16:13 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$14.00Jul 28, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$16.00Jul 28, 15:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?$50.20Jul 28, 15:10 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?$56.00Jul 28, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?$50.60Jul 28, 15:09 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?$10.00Jul 28, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$229.50Jul 28, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$45.90Jul 28, 14:30 UTC
- MERGEWill Marriott (MAR) Q2 worldwide RevPAR be above $139?$1.00Jul 28, 14:10 UTC
- SPLITWill Marriott (MAR) Q2 worldwide RevPAR be above $139?$1.00Jul 28, 14:05 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?$20.00Jul 28, 13:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
61% win rate over 85 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
85 closed markets, 61% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $43.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 22:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 85 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.