Creepy-Meadow
0x3049c0a9fd00eaafac63fd5ead47554a71db7825
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
90
Open notional
$109.08
Total PnL
$-13.0K
Realised
$-121.58
Win rate
67%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 90- YES
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
61 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$61.22
$31.22
- YES
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
30 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$30.00
$9.00
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
18 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$17.86
$2.86
- YES
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series?
10878 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-997.93
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?
8114 shares @ 11.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2024$0.00
$-946.98
- YES
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
8055 shares @ 75.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-6.1K
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
3730 shares @ 51.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-1.9K
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
2127 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-264.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
1250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 30, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 27, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 26, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.