Tangible-Anorak
0x307e1709f22c4506960868ec46e5a7631f8da953
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$756.29
Total PnL
$-2.8K
Realised
$-1.2K
Win rate
0%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?
26650 shares @ 0.3¢·now 2.8¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$746.20
$657.26
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $900 in August?
5660 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$8.49
$-11.51
- YES
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?
3203 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 18, 2026$1.60
$-8.40
- YES
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
723022 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-948.88
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?
51901 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-200.50
- YES
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
50000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-99.96
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 14?
47050 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.00
$-47.01
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 14?
37334 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.00
$-45.64
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
34000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-34.00
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?
18732 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-103.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?$1.07Aug 19, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?$59.49Aug 19, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?$34.63Aug 19, 12:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?$1.33Aug 19, 12:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?$42.18Aug 19, 12:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $900 in August?$19.98Aug 19, 12:09 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President by August 31?$11.43Aug 19, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by August 31?$20.63Aug 17, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?$106.95Aug 17, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $900 in August?$85.58Aug 17, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?$35.32Aug 15, 06:08 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President by August 31?$35.38Aug 15, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by August 31?$57.47Aug 14, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 14?$32.10Aug 13, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 14?$32.10Aug 13, 18:25 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President by August 31?$121.91Aug 13, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 14?$16.77Aug 13, 18:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $900 in August?$16.78Aug 13, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 14?$18.24Aug 13, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?$17.65Aug 13, 17:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $32.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 08:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 12:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.