0x309abfcd1865879a09e554261c816a565848b021
0x309abfcd1865879a09e554261c816a565848b021
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$41.10
Total PnL
$0.14
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
13 shares @ 71.4¢·now 89.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$11.76
$2.38
- NO
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?
9 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.69
$1.13
- NO
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
5 shares @ 46.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.38
$2.88
- YES
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?
5 shares @ 61.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$4.82
$1.85
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
4 shares @ 95.8¢·now 96.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.74
$0.03
- NO
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?
3 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.09
$0.19
- NO
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?
2 shares @ 97.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.29
$0.05
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
2 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.34
$-0.02
- YES
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?
46 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.01
- YES
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?
4 shares @ 80.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.33
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$0.00May 10, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$2.83Apr 26, 06:11 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?$2.51Apr 21, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$4.62Apr 18, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?$2.97Apr 15, 16:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mario Enrique Severich win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?$2.77Apr 13, 03:21 UTC
- TRADESELLViktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?$2.16Apr 12, 17:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?$10.42Apr 12, 15:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$2.84Apr 12, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$2.85Apr 12, 11:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wilfredo Rolando Morales win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?$1.88Apr 12, 09:11 UTC
- TRADESELLViktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?$0.03Apr 12, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYViktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?$1.05Apr 12, 04:15 UTC
- TRADESELLViktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?$1.01Apr 12, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYViktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?$1.09Apr 12, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYViktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?$1.09Apr 12, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYViktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?$1.09Apr 12, 04:15 UTC
- TRADESELLViktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?$0.09Apr 12, 04:15 UTC
- TRADESELLViktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?$0.96Apr 12, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYViktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?$1.09Apr 12, 04:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $1.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 9, 02:27 UTC
- Last active
- May 10, 12:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.