Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

1. 1

   Down 2pp over 24h

   Now 25¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Wide spread — 5.0¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.