Buoyant-Ice
0x30a7df6c0b74e59f90bb0be1831f260c540602fa
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$8.2K
Total PnL
$-814.76
Realised
$-169.50
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
2077 shares @ 91.4¢·now 93.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.9K
$35.40
- NO
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
1876 shares @ 86.4¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$95.56
- NO
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
1676 shares @ 92.3¢·now 96.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$75.39
- NO
New pandemic in 2026?
1400 shares @ 87.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$56.00
- NO
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?
807 shares @ 84.8¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$750.08
$66.28
- NO
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
311 shares @ 84.2¢·now 89.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$276.89
$15.40
- NO
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026?
280 shares @ 93.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$271.03
$11.04
- YES
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
618 shares @ 39.5¢·now 26.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$163.76
$-80.44
- NO
New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
136 shares @ 77.2¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$124.46
$19.50
- YES
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
585 shares @ 3.0¢·now 5.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.37
$15.58
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?$448.44Jul 28, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?$419.15Jul 27, 02:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 American League Championship Series?$8.30Jul 24, 23:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$8.11Jul 13, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$7.79Jul 13, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$46.99Jul 13, 02:50 UTC
- MERGE9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$70.14Jul 13, 02:18 UTC
- MERGEEbola pandemic in 2026?$1.2KJul 13, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEbola pandemic in 2026?$33.33Jul 13, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?$63.31Jul 11, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$14.30Jul 5, 23:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Louis Varland be named to the AL All-Star Team at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?$39.96Jul 5, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Louis Varland be named to the AL All-Star Team at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?$38.19Jul 3, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?$247.09Jul 3, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?$45.88Jul 3, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYPortugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance$266.87Jul 3, 01:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?$75.09Jul 3, 00:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?$41.04Jul 2, 23:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?$53.59Jul 2, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?$72.71Jul 2, 17:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $153.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 22, 22:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 06:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.