New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
Probability
17¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$201.56
Liquidity
$9.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 17¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $9.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5982.5h
- 17:32SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 17¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- stacks.cdc.govOfficial government sourceextracted · highstacks.cdc.gov
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.