Concerned-Middleman
0x30fb0a6c5299295afbc39ef260f68ca43a954f8c
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$1.11
Total PnL
$-16.03
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?
1 shares @ 89.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.11
$0.11
- YES
Will Leavitt say "NATO" during the next press briefing?
10 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will Leavitt say "Tariff" during the next press briefing?
10 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.30
- YES
Will "Trump" be said at the Super Bowl?
8 shares @ 48.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-4.14
- YES
Will Trump say "Nicki" or "Nikki" or "Rapper" this week? (February 8)
5 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.45
- YES
Will Amazon say "Black Friday" during earnings call?
5 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during the announcement on Thursday?
5 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the announcement on Thursday?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in February?
1 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$16.26Feb 12, 11:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "MAGA" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$5.31Feb 12, 11:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026?$6.70Feb 12, 11:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$28.47Feb 12, 11:09 UTC
- TRADESELLNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$95.70Feb 12, 11:08 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?$1.04Feb 12, 11:08 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?$4.31Feb 12, 11:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?$6.30Feb 12, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$41.53Feb 10, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$0.99Feb 10, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$51.47Feb 10, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$2.30Feb 9, 22:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Kamikaze" in February?$1.61Feb 9, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Kamikaze" in February?$1.48Feb 9, 06:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?$17.03Feb 9, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Japan Innovation Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?$11.22Feb 9, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?$6.02Feb 9, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$4.80Feb 9, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump drops Powell investigation by February 28?$1.33Feb 9, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$1.18Feb 9, 03:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $8.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 5, 17:26 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 12, 11:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.