Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

1. 1

   Up 55pp over 24h

   Now 82¢; +4.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Heavy volume on this book — 3.1× turnover

   $74.2k traded against $23.6k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 466h with open resolution ambiguity.

4. 4

   Thin liquidity

   Only $23.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.