Straight-Deer
0x3135ae4b7f400c97831354fb1a3ec33ef2e15c82
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$239.03
Total PnL
$-880.88
Realised
$-78.31
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
87 shares @ 46.2¢·now 41.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$36.06
$-3.94
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
29 shares @ 69.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$28.65
$8.65
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?
26 shares @ 78.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$25.57
$5.57
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
108 shares @ 27.7¢·now 19.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$21.52
$-8.48
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
56 shares @ 54.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.11
$-8.89
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
34 shares @ 59.4¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$17.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
16 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$15.63
$5.63
- NO
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
14 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.49
$4.49
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
19 shares @ 53.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$11.41
$1.42
- YES
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
11 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.24
$1.24
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
4 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 4
- Avg trade size
- $8.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.