PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Oct 4, 2026

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Probability

39¢

+4.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$135.2K

Liquidity

$111.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.0pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:46

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor

1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3874h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 3874.2h
LOW
13:47Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 3874h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
12:00Price
Probability down -4.0pp
to 35¢
MEDIUM
11:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
09:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
23:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability down -4.0pp
to 35¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventBrazil Presidential Election

Category · Politics

Market Description

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Oct 4, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not specified in metadata
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket