Joyous-Surface
0x3237d46c8fad2af34a93ff5eb6c1d0d8f2cb5658
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$163.79
Total PnL
$-159.46
Realised
$-3.67
Win rate
16%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
Will Drake perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
63 shares @ 58.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2027$53.66
$17.04
- YES
Will the New York Yankees hit the most home runs in the 2026 MLB regular season?
51 shares @ 47.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$18.49
$-5.32
- NO
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?
20 shares @ 79.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$16.50
$0.70
- NO
Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?
20 shares @ 88.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 10, 2026$15.50
$-2.10
- NO
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20–$2.30 in August?
20 shares @ 74.1¢·now 55.3¢·exp Sep 11, 2026$11.06
$-3.76
- NO
Will Notre Dame have an undefeated CFB regular season?
19 shares @ 63.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$8.95
$-3.05
- YES
Will Don't Be Dumb (A$AP Rocky) win Best Rap Album at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
40 shares @ 40.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2027$8.80
$-7.20
- NO
Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 AL Central title?
20 shares @ 54.4¢·now 28.7¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$5.75
$-5.13
- YES
Will Drake perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
20 shares @ 43.0¢·now 14.9¢·exp Feb 14, 2027$2.99
$-5.61
- YES
Will the most viewed TV show for the week of August 10 - August 16 have between 7 million and 7.5 million viewers?
20 shares @ 47.0¢·now 14.9¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$2.99
$-6.41
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings?$9.54Aug 17, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings?$9.71Aug 17, 22:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Friday be the most viewed day of ABC World News Tonight for the week of August 10 - August 16?$0.01Aug 17, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?$20.17Aug 17, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?$20.44Aug 17, 20:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?$9.33Aug 17, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Forza Horizon 6 win Best Audio Design at the 2026 Game Awards?$1.55Aug 17, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Forza Horizon 6 win Best Audio Design at the 2026 Game Awards?$1.60Aug 17, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$24.88Aug 17, 19:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?$19.15Aug 17, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?$29.00Aug 17, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$27.00Aug 17, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?$13.38Aug 17, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?$14.00Aug 17, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?$29.85Aug 17, 16:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?$5.01Aug 17, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?$34.20Aug 17, 14:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Uroš Medić fight Mike Malott next?$4.48Aug 17, 14:34 UTC
- TRADESELLMicrostrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?$3.87Aug 17, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicrostrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?$4.00Aug 17, 13:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $15.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 16:09 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 22:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.