Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?
Probability
27¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-22.0pp
24h Vol
$900.62
Liquidity
$1.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 22pp over 24h
Now 27¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $1.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 32¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 10, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2760.5h
Price movement
-22.0pp over the last 24h, now 27¢.
Biggest hourly move: -38.5pp at 22:00 (to 27¢).
Show top 8 of 37 hourly moves
- 23:00 · -38.5pp → 27¢
- 22:00 · -38.5pp → 27¢
- 21:00 · -14.5pp → 27¢
- 00:00 · +16.5pp → 49¢
- Aug 16, 22:00 UTC · +35.0pp → 49¢
- Aug 16, 09:00 UTC · +22.0pp → 49¢
- Aug 15, 12:00 UTC · +22.0pp → 66¢
- Aug 15, 11:00 UTC · +20.5pp → 65¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The Turner Prize is awarded annually by Tate to a British artist for an outstanding exhibition or other presentation of their work. The Turner Prize 2026 shortlist was announced on April 23, 2026, and the shortlisted artists' exhibition runs at Middlesbrough Institute of Modern Art (MIMA) from September 26, 2026 to March 29, 2027. The winner is scheduled to be announced on December 10, 2026. This market will resolve according to the artist who is awarded the Turner Prize 2026. If no winner has been declared by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If multiple listed artists are jointly awarded the Turner Prize 2026, this market will resolve in favor of the winning artist whose last name comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tate (https://www.tate.org.uk/) and the Turner Prize; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?"?
As of Mon, 17 Aug 2026 23:29:15 GMT, YES is priced at 27% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -22.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 10, 2026 (2026-12-10T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$900.62 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.