Thorny-Vice
0x3254102ea88743c5c360d8c5eb24e188be16351f
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
111
Open notional
$588.40
Total PnL
$-923.44
Realised
$17.41
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 111- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
511 shares @ 46.3¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$309.38
$72.38
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
671 shares @ 32.1¢·now 26.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$174.74
$-40.45
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
55 shares @ 54.4¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$43.80
$13.80
- YES
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
146 shares @ 11.7¢·now 9.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$13.19
$-3.81
- YES
US recession by end of 2026?
114 shares @ 26.3¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$13.13
$-16.87
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December?
60 shares @ 24.8¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.78
$-3.22
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,500 in December?
55 shares @ 27.1¢·now 19.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.52
$-4.47
- YES
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
70 shares @ 40.2¢·now 5.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.45
$-24.55
- YES
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
415 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.8¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.11
$-27.38
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5 shares @ 56.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.12
$-0.88
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$94.15Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $9.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 18:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.