Quizzical-Ligula
0x3320a0ab19e174453ee4b3b276ccb203c35fc9e7
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$103.21
Realised
$30.80
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
605 shares @ 54.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$603.54
$276.94
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
897 shares @ 29.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$219.66
$-40.34
- NO
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?
228 shares @ 64.8¢·now 64.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$145.60
$-1.80
- NO
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?
624 shares @ 12.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$96.73
$21.73
- NO
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?
84 shares @ 65.5¢·now 78.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$65.88
$10.88
- YES
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?
186 shares @ 16.1¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$19.58
$-10.42
- NO
Over $27.5M committed to the Credible public sale?
704 shares @ 2.1¢·now 1.9¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$13.72
$-1.28
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
100 shares @ 12.5¢·now 12.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$12.05
$-0.45
- YES
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?
41 shares @ 25.3¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.35
$-6.13
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
7 shares @ 43.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$2.92
$-0.07
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?$127.92Jul 15, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $27.5M committed to the Credible public sale?$5.34Jul 15, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $27.5M committed to the Credible public sale?$10.69Jul 15, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?$12.34Jul 15, 21:12 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?$2.31Jul 15, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?$0.05Jul 15, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?$5.50Jul 15, 20:49 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $50M committed to the Credible public sale?$16.82Jul 15, 20:48 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $45M committed to the Credible public sale?$25.79Jul 15, 20:48 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $40M committed to the Credible public sale?$23.20Jul 15, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?$10.75Jul 15, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $30M committed to the Credible public sale?$58.47Jul 15, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?$30.00Jul 15, 11:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?$7.65Jul 15, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?$5.12Jul 15, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $50M committed to the Credible public sale?$25.44Jul 15, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $45M committed to the Credible public sale?$34.48Jul 15, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $40M committed to the Credible public sale?$51.96Jul 15, 09:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $25.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 17:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 00:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.