Irritating-Fatherinlaw
0x345e30d9244c6bbb7da5c9b4db0c07ac7bf273b8
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
34
Open notional
$51.17
Total PnL
$-48.46
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
Probable FDV above $500M one day after launch?
51 shares @ 99.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$47.49
$-2.51
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
3 shares @ 71.2¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.55
$0.18
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 15.5¢·now 16.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.08
$0.08
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026?
10 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.04
$-0.96
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?
63 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
53 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
50 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
48 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
34 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.40Jul 28, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$1.04Jul 27, 01:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$39.13Jul 25, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$1.04Jul 24, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$1.04Jul 23, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$1.05Jul 22, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$1.04Jul 21, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$1.05Jul 20, 02:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 16?$6.01Jul 17, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 16?$6.00Jul 16, 01:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 14?$5.61Jul 15, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$1.05Jul 15, 01:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?$2.66Jul 14, 02:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 14?$5.60Jul 14, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?$2.65Jul 13, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026?$1.04Jul 10, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$3.75Jul 9, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$1.05Jul 9, 02:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$2.86Jul 8, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$3.13Jul 7, 18:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $3.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 14, 05:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 01:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.