Regular-Gaiters
0x346706f6d2689c2542cdfeaac09cd9fdf0fe1478
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$1.04
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?
1 shares @ 98.7¢·now 96.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.04
$-0.02
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8PM ET
5299 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-98.98
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11PM ET
2500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-6.47
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12AM ET
2430 shares @ 96.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.3K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2AM ET
2400 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-42.69
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4AM ET
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1AM ET
1500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-15.60
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9AM ET
1000 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-78.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7PM ET
800 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.39
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
400 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-4.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.06Jul 19, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?$1.09Jul 19, 23:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.23Jul 19, 23:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.31Jul 19, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?$1.09Jun 10, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.28Jun 10, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.22Jun 10, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 17?$1.17Jun 10, 00:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$2.36Jun 10, 00:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$5.07Jun 10, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 17?$1.17May 15, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$2.25May 15, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$4.24May 15, 23:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or below on April 3?$1.24May 15, 23:38 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?$2.44May 15, 23:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$4.78May 15, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or below on April 3?$1.24Apr 2, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?$2.20Apr 2, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$4.30Apr 2, 07:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$1.26Apr 2, 07:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $53.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 9, 23:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 23:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.