0x34a9e26af9bcec22a27cbc96f55cdbb39ad74cfd
0x34a9e26af9bcec22a27cbc96f55cdbb39ad74cfd
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
191
Open notional
$7.3K
Total PnL
$44.37
Realised
$41.97
Win rate
62%
45 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 191- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
578 shares @ 79.8¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$488.49
$27.12
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
490 shares @ 64.6¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$453.25
$136.65
- NO
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?
337 shares @ 97.1¢·now 99.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$334.06
$6.66
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?
281 shares @ 88.7¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$259.68
$10.71
- NO
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?
373 shares @ 61.6¢·now 66.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$246.28
$16.41
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
653 shares @ 46.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$244.80
$-55.20
- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
308 shares @ 58.9¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$229.67
$48.18
- YES
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
223 shares @ 90.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$205.83
$5.56
- NO
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
286 shares @ 63.9¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$204.61
$21.70
- YES
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
518 shares @ 40.6¢·now 39.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$204.59
$-5.47
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?$133.59Jul 10, 01:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$0.00Jul 10, 00:49 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.21Jul 10, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?$121.87Jul 10, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$15.73Jul 10, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?$13.09Jul 10, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.21Jul 10, 00:02 UTC
- REWARD$1.27Jul 10, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?$14.12Jul 9, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?$16.50Jul 9, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYPedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?$8.24Jul 9, 23:06 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?$5.35Jul 9, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the final be ESP vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$192.33Jul 9, 22:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Morocco win on 2026-07-09?$340.90Jul 9, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the final be ESP vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$103.97Jul 9, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the final be ESP vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$68.22Jul 9, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?$0.22Jul 9, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?$2.58Jul 9, 21:21 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$6.27Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
79/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
62% win rate over 45 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
45 closed markets, 62% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $20.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 15:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 01:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 45 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.