Corny-Hyphenation
0x34dbc406881a24b82f4b138e09169d9a004b1b63
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$4.9K
Total PnL
$717.58
Realised
$142.27
Win rate
82%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
2119 shares @ 63.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$254.79
- YES
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?
911 shares @ 74.6¢·now 96.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$881.00
$201.25
- NO
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
812 shares @ 78.1¢·now 88.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$718.86
$84.11
- YES
Will August 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
472 shares @ 87.1¢·now 96.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$455.79
$44.85
- NO
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026?
303 shares @ 93.6¢·now 93.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$281.60
$-1.81
- NO
Will global temperature increase by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026?
322 shares @ 82.1¢·now 82.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$266.04
$1.14
- YES
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in August be at least 95 mph?
162 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$161.75
$1.82
- NO
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026?
105 shares @ 95.7¢·now 97.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$102.92
$2.04
- NO
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in August be at least 115 mph?
96 shares @ 75.4¢·now 76.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$73.31
$1.08
- NO
Will August 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
65 shares @ 84.9¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$63.31
$7.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026?$104.57Aug 18, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by more than 1.45ºC in August 2026?$1.40Aug 18, 12:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$33.30Aug 18, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$14.80Aug 18, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$22.20Aug 18, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$1.81Aug 18, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$30.00Aug 18, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026?$26.85Aug 18, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?$1.11Aug 18, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$5.00Aug 18, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$0.24Aug 18, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$7.06Aug 18, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$14.60Aug 18, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$14.60Aug 18, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$0.39Aug 18, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$14.21Aug 18, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$81.94Aug 17, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$40.25Aug 17, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026?$61.63Aug 17, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026?$66.40Aug 17, 18:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
82% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $20.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 10:24 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 12:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.