Thoughtful-Octagon
0x34e105228778a5bf3aa1f6dab3a824b9ae67e549
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$48.63
Total PnL
$0.17
Realised
$-0.07
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
10 shares @ 91.4¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.62
$0.47
- NO
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.49
$0.49
- NO
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5 shares @ 96.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$5.00
$0.15
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 88.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.85
$0.45
- NO
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.44
$0.44
- NO
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.40
$0.40
- NO
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.35
$0.35
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
4 shares @ 97.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.09
$0.09
- NO
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2 shares @ 92.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$2.16
$0.16
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 56.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.65
$0.65
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 20, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $1.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 07:08 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.