Thoughtful-Octagon
0x34e105228778a5bf3aa1f6dab3a824b9ae67e549
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
26
Open notional
$176.34
Total PnL
$5.02
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
20 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$19.87
$0.09
- NO
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
20 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$19.85
$0.09
- NO
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
20 shares @ 97.9¢·now 98.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$19.71
$0.13
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$11.34
$0.42
- NO
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
11 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.93
$0.02
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
10 shares @ 98.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$10.00
$0.18
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
10 shares @ 96.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.96
$0.27
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
10 shares @ 91.4¢·now 93.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.37
$0.23
- NO
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
7 shares @ 96.8¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$6.69
$-0.09
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.26
$0.26
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jun 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 17, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 9, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 4, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 2, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 1, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
10 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 10
- Avg trade size
- $3.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.