Polite-Gravity
0x352f71df9f34c7c02946fa7f3c3b2e37aaa4bf97
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
81
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-289.75
Realised
$-3.52
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- YES
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?
260 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
154 shares @ 9.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-14.90
- YES
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06?
138 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Belgium vs. Tunisia end in a draw?
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Argentina?
86 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
85 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
82 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04?
79 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5$5.94Jul 15, 18:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: England 2 - 0 Argentina?$6.28Jul 15, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$2.08Jul 14, 18:43 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?$9.57Jul 14, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?$21.89Jul 14, 12:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$11.88Jul 11, 22:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$4.99Jul 11, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$5.19Jul 11, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$1.06Jul 11, 15:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$0.00Jul 9, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$2.10Jul 9, 13:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Egypt win on 2026-07-07?$0.01Jul 7, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Egypt win on 2026-07-07?$1.03Jul 7, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Egypt win on 2026-07-07?$6.91Jul 7, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Egypt win on 2026-07-07?$1.03Jul 7, 16:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win on 2026-07-05?$10.13Jul 5, 17:52 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score AND Cabo Verde to score first vs. Argentina?$2.99Jul 3, 22:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $4.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 21:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 18:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.