Sad-Congressperson
0x35ba0d8d2817bf33284bb26d1363da8d13fa6026
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$12.58
Total PnL
$-126.24
Realised
$-46.88
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- UP
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 5?
8 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$8.47
$3.47
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
55 shares @ 27.3¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.02
$-11.98
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4 shares @ 24.4¢·now 15.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.64
$-0.36
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 56.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.45
$-1.55
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
100 shares @ 26.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-26.84
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
16 shares @ 32.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.33
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
13 shares @ 67.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-8.87
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
11 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
9 shares @ 21.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.29Aug 4, 21:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.68Aug 4, 21:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYGold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 5?$5.08Aug 4, 21:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$10.00Aug 4, 21:47 UTC
- REDEEMFed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?$1.56Jun 22, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$2.44Jun 9, 19:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 3, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?$2.60May 11, 06:17 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?$2.90May 11, 06:17 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$0.00Apr 10, 13:05 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$17.43Apr 10, 13:04 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by May 31?$1.61Apr 8, 12:11 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?$2.33Apr 8, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$1.00Apr 7, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$1.00Apr 7, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$1.00Apr 7, 07:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$1.11Apr 3, 14:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?$1.32Apr 3, 14:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?$4.88Apr 3, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1.00Apr 3, 14:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $2.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 16, 08:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 21:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.