GeopoliticsExpires Jun 30, 2026

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Probability

64¢

-0.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$102.5K

Liquidity

$110.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

-22.5pp 7d

Apr 17, 2026, 23:00Apr 24, 2026, 20:10

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 1611.7h
LOW
20:11Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1612h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
20:00Price
Probability down -9.0pp
to 64¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability down -9.0pp
to 66¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability down -9.5pp
to 65¢
MEDIUM
16:00Price
Probability down -11.0pp
to 65¢
MEDIUM
14:00Price
Probability down -11.5pp
to 62¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability down -7.0pp
to 68¢
MEDIUM
11:00Price
Probability down -14.5pp
to 60¢
MEDIUM
10:00Price
Probability down -15.0pp
to 61¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability down -15.0pp
to 61¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability down -15.5pp
to 62¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability down -16.5pp
to 62¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability down -20.0pp
to 62¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability down -21.0pp
to 62¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability down -17.5pp
to 63¢
MEDIUM
23:00Price
Probability down -18.0pp
to 63¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability down -16.0pp
to 63¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -15.5pp
to 64¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -16.0pp
to 65¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -12.0pp
to 66¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -12.0pp
to 66¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -12.0pp
to 67¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -13.0pp
to 67¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -12.0pp
to 68¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -14.0pp
to 69¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -15.0pp
to 69¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -14.5pp
to 69¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -13.5pp
to 70¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -14.0pp
to 71¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jun 30, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not specified in metadata
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

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Alerts

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Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

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