Thrifty-Shoelace
0x364f935ccafae7bb980616b81999239ed816562c
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$21.24
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$-3.99
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
10 shares @ 97.9¢·now 98.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.03
$0.03
- NO
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
11 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.99
$-0.01
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
17 shares @ 30.0¢·now 7.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.22
$-3.79
- NIKOLA BARTUNKOVA
Madrid Open, Qualification: Nikola Bartunkova vs Alina Charaeva
58202 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-58.20
- YES
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-18?
12083 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-66.99
- YES
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18?
12006 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-14.99
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 13?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 13?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in December 2025?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.00Jun 26, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Vibe" 5+ times during Love Island E20?$1.00Jun 26, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27?$1.00Jun 26, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.7% in June?$1.01Jun 26, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global art market sales hit $65 billion for 2026?$1.04Jun 26, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.00Jun 26, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?$1.00Jun 26, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$1.00Jun 26, 11:35 UTC
- REDEEMITF Kayseri: Kateryna Lazarenko vs Doga Turkmen$1.20Jun 26, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?$1.00Jun 26, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$1.00Jun 26, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Playoffs$1.01Jun 26, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF Kayseri: Kateryna Lazarenko vs Doga Turkmen$1.01Jun 26, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House$1.00Jun 26, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$2.06Jun 26, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$2.00Jun 26, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$2.07Jun 26, 06:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$0.00Jun 26, 06:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$2.15Jun 26, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$2.01Jun 26, 06:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $1.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 13:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 11:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.