Knowing-Arthur-Ash
0x3653235d75a0d5969c42f7514d4df8ea5f8cef74
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$711.73
Total PnL
$-3.9K
Realised
$1.0K
Win rate
100%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Belgium finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
139 shares @ 0.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$134.87
$134.87
- NO
Will Iran finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
139 shares @ 0.0¢·now 94.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$131.26
$131.26
- NO
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
206 shares @ 95.6¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$110.43
$-86.70
- YES
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30?
105 shares @ 14.3¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$65.63
$50.63
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
139 shares @ 28.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$56.26
$17.33
- NO
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
52 shares @ 81.4¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$47.25
$4.74
- YES
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
63 shares @ 0.0¢·now 65.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$41.19
$41.19
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
51 shares @ 0.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$17.59
$17.59
- NO
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
139 shares @ 8.2¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$14.56
$3.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26?
50 shares @ 0.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$14.32
$14.32
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 26?$2.71Jun 25, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 26°C on June 26?$0.11Jun 25, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 26?$0.31Jun 25, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$67.49Jun 25, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$5.30Jun 25, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$0.67Jun 25, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on June 25?$0.01Jun 25, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 25?$2.12Jun 25, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?$180.74Jun 25, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?$9.12Jun 25, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 25?$4.56Jun 25, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26?$3.70Jun 25, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?$22.38Jun 25, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?$1.14Jun 25, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 25?$11.02Jun 25, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?$3.51Jun 25, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?$2.11Jun 25, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 25?$3.91Jun 25, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 25?$0.07Jun 25, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 25?$0.32Jun 25, 20:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $13.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 20:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 20:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.