Milky-Insulation
0x36628e3bfa6211e78868595b8b5e780a0d1eca07
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-464.45
Realised
$50.97
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
3000 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-38.57
- YES
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3000 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-78.00
- YES
Will Karolína Muchová win the 2026 Women’s French Open?
1679 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-46.75
- YES
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
1000 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-125.00
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
1000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will South Korea win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
1000 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?
418 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-22.09
- YES
Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
352 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-26.60
- YES
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
309 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-8.39
- YES
Will Eileen Gu (CHN) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
208 shares @ 34.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-71.40
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$80.28Jul 3, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$59.80May 2, 13:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$1.11Apr 29, 22:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?$1.64Apr 29, 22:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?$27.37Apr 29, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$26.52Apr 29, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?$26.45Apr 29, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?$27.31Apr 29, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$40.05Apr 25, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karolína Muchová win the 2026 Women’s French Open?$46.76Apr 18, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$4.10Apr 18, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$0.85Apr 11, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$5.50Apr 11, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$44.68Apr 11, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?$40.00Apr 11, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?$34.52Apr 9, 03:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $66.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 21, 17:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.