AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

1. 1

   Down 2pp over 24h

   Now 17¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $6.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.