Growing-Consensus
0x366ca527d1436aae117faf746f17098cf3f66578
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$672.93
Total PnL
$4.6K
Realised
$9.9K
Win rate
64%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- NO
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
416 shares @ 93.4¢·now 95.9¢·exp May 31, 2026$399.08
$10.16
- YES
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
11514 shares @ 0.9¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$236.04
$125.89
- NO
Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government?
50 shares @ 60.1¢·now 63.9¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$31.98
$1.93
- YES
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?
10 shares @ 80.0¢·now 58.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.84
$-2.16
- YES
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
12901 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-15.04
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?
4000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-27.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
3942 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-429.14
- YES
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?
3264 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-25.13
- YES
Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files?
2365 shares @ 31.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-740.62
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
1302 shares @ 92.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-1.2K
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.81Jul 15, 00:46 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$37.17Jul 14, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$9.08Jul 14, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$257.30Jul 14, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$93.83Jul 14, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$94.90Jul 14, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$28.47Jul 14, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$419.50Jul 14, 19:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$9.93Jul 14, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$55.25Jul 14, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$55.50Jul 14, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$55.75Jul 14, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$59.00Jul 14, 13:12 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.68Jul 14, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$44.10Jul 13, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$53.25Jul 13, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$37.09Jul 13, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$10.46Jul 13, 17:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $49.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 17:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 00:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.