Political-Midline
0x36fd6a9d1d599b89e530f0be1c01faaf34548982
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
135
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-927.26
Realised
$-14.31
Win rate
55%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 135- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
1129 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
1095 shares @ 20.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-228.43
- YES
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6PM ET
158 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-18.94
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?
130 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-56.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
119 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- NO
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score
97 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?
92 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
90 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLSpread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)$10.87May 10, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)$11.13May 10, 15:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?$11.24May 10, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?$14.30May 10, 10:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET$6.34May 10, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET$5.22May 10, 10:40 UTC
- TRADESELLConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$13.36May 10, 10:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$16.20May 9, 23:56 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$15.61May 9, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$11.31May 9, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$8.15May 9, 23:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$5.12May 9, 23:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$3.83May 9, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$5.17May 9, 23:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET$10.22May 9, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET$8.08May 9, 23:22 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET$8.13May 9, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET$8.00May 9, 23:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$7.62May 9, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$17.55May 9, 23:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
31 closed markets, 55% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $9.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 7, 20:53 UTC
- Last active
- May 10, 16:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.