ScienceExpires May 15, 2026
Creator

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Probability

39¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+6.0pp

24h Vol

$36.9K

Liquidity

$4.8K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 7, 2026, 17:00May 8, 2026, 21:18
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-08T21-19Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 6pp over 24h

    Now 39¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 7.7× turnover

    $36.9k traded against $4.8k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $4.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 34¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 146.7h

    LOW

Price movement

+6.0pp over the last 24h, now 39¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

4
Category · Science

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Hantavirus in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Science

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

hantavirus

Reason

Hantavirus disease — Science / public health.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?"?

As of Fri, 08 May 2026 21:19:18 GMT, YES is priced at 39% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +6.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$36.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $38.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
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